Interactive Tool
The Trade War
Since February 2025, the US has imposed sweeping tariffs on Canadian goods — and Canada has hit back. Here's what's active, what got struck down, and what it means for Canadian jobs and wallets.
Last updated: February 24, 2026
~$420B
Canadian exports to the US (2024)
Canada sends ~75% of all exports to the US — the most trade-dependent relationship of any major economy.
Source: UN COMTRADE / Trading Economics ↗1.5–2%
GDP reduction from tariff cycle
The Bank of Canada and independent economists estimate the 2025-2026 tariff cycle reduced Canadian GDP by 1.5-2 percentage points.
Source: Bank of Canada / CIRANO ↗~$1,900
Added annual cost per household
Through higher prices on imported goods, disrupted supply chains, and retaliatory tariffs on US products Canadians buy.
Source: Various economic analyses, 2025
490K–700K
Canadian jobs at risk
CIRANO modelling estimates 490,000 to 700,000 Canadian jobs at risk from the full tariff cycle, with effects peaking one year after implementation.
Source: CIRANO (2025) ↗Where Things Stand Now
IEEPA tariffs (25% broad / 10% energy)
Struck down by US Supreme Court, Feb 20, 2026. Refund process for importers underway.
Feb 20, 2026
Section 232: Steel & Aluminum (25%)
NOT affected by SCOTUS ruling. Different legal authority. Remains fully in effect.
Mar 12, 2025
Section 232 + AD/CVD: Softwood Lumber (~45%)
Combines anti-dumping duties (~35%) with Section 232 (10%). Highest effective tariff on any Canadian sector.
Oct 14, 2025
Auto tariffs: Vehicles (25%) + Parts (25%)
Applies to non-US content. USMCA provides partial relief but most vehicles have mixed content.
Apr 3, 2025
Section 122: 10% on non-USMCA goods
Imposed hours after SCOTUS ruling. 150-day limit without Congress. USMCA-compliant goods exempt.
Feb 24, 2026
Canada counter-tariff: Steel & Aluminum (25%)
Canada's retaliatory 25% tariff on US steel and aluminum. Expanded to steel derivatives Dec 2025.
Mar 13, 2025
Canada counter-tariff: Non-CUSMA US vehicles (25%)
Canada's retaliatory 25% tariff on US-origin vehicles not meeting CUSMA rules of origin.
Apr 9, 2025
Canada Phase 1 counter-tariffs ($30B)
Removed September 1, 2025. Consumer/industrial goods tariffs lifted as part of de-escalation.
Sep 1, 2025
Timeline
US actionCanadian responseCourt ruling
Sector Impact
Not all sectors are hit equally. Energy and agriculture are largely shielded by USMCA. Steel, aluminum, lumber, and autos bear the brunt.
⛽ Energy (Oil & Gas)
USMCA ExemptExports at risk
$170B
US tariff
0% (USMCA exempt)
Canada counter
None currently
Jobs at risk
~50,000 (indirect, from uncertainty)
“Canada supplies 60% of all US crude oil imports — 4.1 million barrels per day.”
The original 10% energy tariff was struck down by SCOTUS on Feb 20, 2026. Canadian energy exports are USMCA-compliant and exempt from the new Section 122 tariff. However, the months of tariff uncertainty have accelerated Canada's push to diversify exports away from the US — non-US oil exports rose from 6% to 15% of total in 2025.
🚗 Automotive
Active TariffExports at risk
$70B
US tariff
25% on non-US content
Canada counter
25% on non-CUSMA US vehicles
Jobs at risk
~125,000 direct + 375,000 supply chain
“A single auto part can cross the Canada-US border up to 8 times during assembly.”
The auto sector is the hardest hit. 25% tariffs on vehicles and parts remain in effect (they were NOT based on IEEPA, so the SCOTUS ruling doesn't help). Stellantis cancelled its Brampton plant expansion. Ontario lost 27,500 manufacturing jobs in the first 8 months of 2025. Canada launched a $570M auto worker strategy in Feb 2026.
🏗️ Steel & Aluminum
Active TariffExports at risk
$25B
US tariff
25%
Canada counter
25% on US steel and aluminum
Jobs at risk
~23,000 direct + 100,000 indirect
“Canada is the #1 source of US aluminum imports and the #2 source of steel.”
Section 232 tariffs (25%) remain fully in effect — they were NOT struck down by the SCOTUS ruling because they use different legal authority. Canada maintains 25% counter-tariffs on US steel and aluminum. This is the longest-running active tariff front, having been in place since March 2025.
🪵 Softwood Lumber
Active TariffExports at risk
$10B
US tariff
~45% (35% AD/CVD + 10% Section 232)
Canada counter
None (separate legal dispute)
Jobs at risk
~60,000
“Canadian lumber supplies ~30% of US demand, but faces the highest tariff of any sector at ~45%.”
Softwood lumber faces the highest effective tariff of any sector — roughly 45% when anti-dumping duties (~35%) are combined with the new Section 232 tariff (10%, effective Oct 2025). This is a decades-old trade dispute that escalated significantly in 2025. Canadian lumber supplies ~30% of US demand.
🌾 Agriculture & Food
USMCA ExemptExports at risk
$55B
US tariff
0% (mostly USMCA exempt)
Canada counter
Removed (was part of Phase 1)
Jobs at risk
~30,000 (from uncertainty and disruption)
“Canada is the largest agricultural exporter to the US — over $55B CAD in food products annually.”
Most agricultural exports are USMCA-compliant and now tariff-free following the SCOTUS ruling and USMCA exemptions. However, the March-August 2025 tariff period caused significant disruption — supply chains were rerouted, contracts were lost, and some perishable goods spoiled at the border during the initial confusion.
Canada's Counter-Tariffs
Canada's retaliatory measures, by phase. Designed to maximize political pressure while minimizing harm to Canadian supply chains.
🇨🇦 Phase 1
Effective Mar 4, 2025 · Removed Sep 1, 2025
Canada's first wave of retaliation, matching US tariffs dollar-for-dollar. Targeted products were chosen to maximize political impact in US states. Removed September 1, 2025 as part of de-escalation.
🇨🇦 Phase 2 (Announced)
Effective Mar 25, 2025
Announced as an escalation threat covering $125B in US goods. Never fully implemented — served as negotiating leverage. Only steel, aluminum, and auto components of Phase 2 proceeded.
🇨🇦 Steel & Aluminum (Ongoing)
Effective Mar 13, 2025
Retained after Phase 1 removal. Canada's response to Section 232 steel/aluminum tariffs. Expanded in December 2025 to cover steel-derivative products.
🇨🇦 Automobiles (Ongoing)
Effective Apr 9, 2025
Counter-tariff on US-origin vehicles that don't meet CUSMA rules of origin. Part of tit-for-tat escalation after US auto tariffs took effect April 3.
Sources & Methodology
Trade data from Statistics Canada, UN COMTRADE, and Trading Economics. Job impact estimates from CIRANO (2025). GDP impact from Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Reports. Legal analysis from Blakes and Baker Tilly Canada timelines. SCOTUS ruling: Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump (2026).
This tracker is updated manually. Tariff situations change rapidly — always verify with official Government of Canada sources for the latest status.